Option Trade Expected Value Calculator
EV of any defined trade from win rate and payoffs, with breakeven win rate and 100-trade projection.
Formula
A 70% win rate sounds great until the payoff ratio needs 78% — the default illustrates exactly that trap, common in far-OTM credit selling. Expectancy, not win rate, compounds; this is the one calculation every trade journal should run.
Not financial advice — for informational and analytical use only. Verify all figures with a qualified professional before acting on them.
Need option trade expected value calculator results fast? Analysts, founders, traders and finance professionals use the Option Trade Expected Value Calculator to skip the spreadsheet and get a defensible answer in one step — free, private and instant.
About Option Trade Expected Value Calculator
EV of any defined trade from win rate and payoffs, with breakeven win rate and 100-trade projection. A 70% win rate sounds great until the payoff ratio needs 78% — the default illustrates exactly that trap, common in far-OTM credit selling. Expectancy, not win rate, compounds; this is the one calculation every trade journal should run. The governing relationship is EV = p·W − (1−p)·L; breakeven p = L/(W+L). The Option Trade Expected Value Calculator computes entirely in your browser — free, private (your figures never leave your device) and instant, recalculating live as you change any input.
How to use Option Trade Expected Value Calculator
- 1Enter Win rate (%), Profit when right, Loss when wrong, Trades per year into the Option Trade Expected Value Calculator.
- 2The result is computed automatically using EV = p·W − (1−p)·L; breakeven p = L/(W+L) — there is no button to press.
- 3Change any input to model a different scenario, then copy or share the result.
Why use Option Trade Expected Value Calculator?
- ✓Computes option trade expected value calculator instantly with the correct formula — no spreadsheet needed
- ✓100% free and unlimited, with no sign-up, login or paywall
- ✓Runs entirely in your browser, so the figures you enter stay private
- ✓Shows the formula, a live worked example and references so you can defend the number
Frequently asked questions
What is the formula behind the Option Trade Expected Value Calculator?+
Option Trade Expected Value Calculator uses EV = p·W − (1−p)·L; breakeven p = L/(W+L). A 70% win rate sounds great until the payoff ratio needs 78% — the default illustrates exactly that trap, common in far-OTM credit selling. The tool substitutes your actual inputs into this relationship and shows the worked example step by step.
What inputs does the Option Trade Expected Value Calculator need?+
Enter Win rate (%), Profit when right, Loss when wrong, Trades per year and the result updates immediately — there is no button to press. Change any value to model a different scenario in real time.
Is the Option Trade Expected Value Calculator free, and is my data private?+
Yes — it is completely free with no sign-up or usage limit, and it runs entirely in your browser, so the numbers you enter are never uploaded or stored on any server. It is for informational and analytical use, not financial advice.
What should I watch out for when using the Option Trade Expected Value Calculator?+
Expectancy, not win rate, compounds; this is the one calculation every trade journal should run.
What is the Option Trade Expected Value Calculator based on?+
The method follows authoritative sources: Thorp — expectation in gambling and markets. The formula and references are shown on the page so you can verify and cite the result.
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